Why UTEP must win a lot more

Let's forget the "dee-fense" accolades for today. Yes, defense is why UTEP is so much better this basketball season. Today the subject is changed in order to chew on something else.

Let's talk having won a close game Wednesday, at home, against a team that is, at best, a long shot for the Conference USA title. UTEP held off Tulane by four points on a night UTEP had a cold hand shooting, but won with defense.

UTEP (17-4) will have games like Wednesday's,  every team does. And winning these close ones — not getting upset by a littler guy - is so important. And a home-court loss is even worse because cold shooting/good defense isn't usually enough to win on the road.

This is because, while a 17-4 record looks good now, a 23-7 regular-season record means you're on the bubble these days if you are an "at-large" candidate for the NCAA Tournament. Maybe you get in, maybe not.

UTEP has nine games to play and it can't afford to lose more than two of them.

Since UTEP is host for the C-USA Tournament in March, and is presently atop the league standings, it appears the Miners would be favored in the tournament, and that means an automatic NCAA berth.

But C-USA is not a Big 12, Big Ten ... SEC  that gets five, six or seven teams in the NCAA field. It gets two - or one!

Remember last year. UTEP won the regular-season C-USA  title, but lost to Houston in the C-USA tourney title game. UTEP made the NCAA field, all right, but some think the Miners were the last team chosen. We don't know that for sure. And the Miners were 26-6 on NCAA Selection Sunday. (They'd lose to Butler in the NCAA First Round and finish 26-7).

It used to be 20 regular-season wins was an NCAA lock. Then teams started playing more games, so it became 4 or fewer losses was a lock.

This year, because of playing in that early season Atlantic City tournament, UTEP has 30 regular-season games.

I'm saying UTEP has to win more than six of its final nine games or win the C-USA tournament (not a given) - or the Miners will be sweating it out as did the Billy Gillispie team the year he left UTEP for Texas A&M and as did last year's Tony Barbee team, although most fans are happy Barbee left for Auburn and Tim Floyd is the new UTEP coach.

Comments

[JAT]

Good post Joe. Agreed. C-USA has a few pretty good teams like us, Memphis and UAB but the big dance isn't taking all three.

[Stahala]

Most likely, UTEP and Memphis will both finish 14-2. Memphis will lose to UTEP and UTEP will lose at SMU. But I still think UTEP can finish 15-1, which should guarantee an at-large. The only thing that would prevent both these schools from dancing is an upset CUSA tourney winner. UAB and S. Miss will be in the NIT.

BYU will win the NCAA tournament, Im sure of it now. Jimmer is a beast.

[rj]

Obviously the CUSA tourney at home is a big boost, but for the sake of this argument, lets say we lose in the CUSA tourney championship to either Memphis or UAB...

Ive done the math and see us hopefully finishing with a 27-7 (13-3 conference) record, that includes 2 more losses which basically falls in line with Joe's thinking because lets be honest here...we can easily slip up this Saturday at Tulsa, Southern Miss or even in Dallas because SMU has been playing alot better.

I am including wins at home against Memphis, UCF and Marshall which should help the RPI...

So would 27-7 be enough to get an at-large?
You would think so, but again our resume is pretty weak and the 2 chances we've had to get big wins (BYU, UAB) were both losses. Maybe winning the CUSA regular season title does carry some weight, but we had a tremendous season last year and barely snuck into the tourney.

Bottom line, asides from us continuing to win, we need some other these other CUSA teams to get it together to help our RPI, mainly UCF, Marshall and Southern Miss.

BTW, Michigan thankfully beat Mich St. tonight, they are considered our best win at this time so I know i'm pulling for the Wolverines the rest of the way. Crazy how so much of our team's success depends on others.

[bill]

To guarantee a spot in the NCAA tourney, the Miners need only win the last game of the CUSA tournament. It's the only way to be sure, and takes all the guesswork and heartache out of it.

[Canaima]

I see Joe is still the best at recycling old information and at stating the obvious. All year Lunardi on ESPN has been predicting that only 2 C-USA teams go to the tourney (see his weekly bracketology). That is until the last week when he dropped that to just 1 C-USA team. So yes, as another poster said, UTEP needs to win the conference tourney no matter how many regular season games they win - otherwise there are no guarantees.

Another poster cited Michigan beating Mich State - yes it helps us but MSU is in disarray and may have their own doubts about making the tourney. Michigan might still finish at the bottom of the Big Ten.

[James]

Hey Joe!Defense! Baby! Defense! It's the face of Texas-El Paso Basketball. Get used to it. His new "Cochency" has taken a team, less two big contributors last season, and is making a run at the tournament. Something a lot of fans thought was "not in the cards" this season! Tonight's game at Tulsa will be a huge learning and growing experience for our players. Remember last year's NCAA's guy's! It was "one and done"! Treat this game as though it were a second chance. Play with the defensive intensity from start to finish! Leave it all out on the court!Good luck guy's! GO ORANGE! GO MINERS! BEAT TULSA!

[Stahala]

Really? A lot of fans thought it wasnt in the cards? Well, if you remember, I was not one of them. I predicted UTEP would go 27-3 or 26-4 for the regular season with loses at BYU and Syracuse(it was GT instead) and one or two conference loses. I couldnt imagine we'd lose to Pacific, but it was the first game and the chemistry of new coach and players was not yet there. It now looks like 25-5 as I am predicting we take a loss at SMU, not at Tulsa tonight, not at S Miss (of course its possible, and they will be very tough games) but against Papa Dia and the Stangs. And if Memphis only loses to us, then we both will go dancing, assuming one of us wins the tourney.
Point is, stay excited Miner fans!

[javi]

UTEP will lose to SMU!!! Thats is not a very well thought out statement. Sorry but not happening. Here in Central Texas we get 3 chances to see UTEP @ houston, rice, and SMU. Let me tell you we are loud all 500 of us make more noise than a 8k don haskins center. Till you make the trip to moody colesium you will notice its home away from home.