Who Kicks Ash in Conference Realignment?

Obscured vision. Loud explosions. A cloud you only hope isn't hiding unseen danger.

No, it's not an Icelandic volcano. It's an athletic one. But it could be one that benefits UTEP. Maybe.

Stick around -- I'll explain.

With word that the Big 10 has informally spoken to Nebraska, Missouri, Notre Dame and Rutgers about taking up residence with them, college football's vulcanized landscape is shifting again, dragging the rest of dependent athletic departments behind them.

To me, though the game remains the most meaningful, tradition-rich sport we have; college football makes an Eyjafjallajokul of itself more than other sports.

It is spewing ash that is simultaneously obscuring vision of its future and creating a no-fly zone, grounding all movement -- realignment, TV contract talks and more -- until the dust settles. 

Or until the whole thing blows its stack. And a full eruption is the prediction.

As excited as all of us media types get when a story this big is on the boil, it is bittersweet around these parts; for one, because I hate to see the game go through these changes. 

It screws up fans who lose their rivalries when schools move conference affiliation. It creates a Steinbrenneresque free agent's loyalty amongst leaguemates -- everyone loves everyone else until somebody can make more somewhere else.

And, maybe worst of all, it makes schools like UTEP the chubby kid playing musical chairs -- the Miners just don't have the speed to do anything other than wait and see if there's a spot left open somewhere when the music stops.

Sure, UTEP fans would love to get into the Mountain West. But what if TCU, Utah and BYU have bolted for the Pac-10 and/or the Big XII and the MWC becomes the WAC without its bell cow teams?

Or how about Conference USA with no Memphis or Houston, forced to invite some Sun Belt teams to fill out the roster? 

Yikes!

As sad as this is, it is also necessary as college football slims down, bulks up and becomes a bigger player for sports ad and cable subscription dollars. It is the nature of business. 

While pro leagues can make any changes they need to market and advertise their sport, college football is undervalued and over-burdened, carrying the extra weight of whole athletic programs.

Don't think that I'm advocating the hard business of college sports over the mission of education. Despite the jaded side of this, college football could never, ever turn into the NFL, mostly because a bigger bottom line still just pays for more endowed scholarships and better facilities for all student-athletes.

Nonetheless, small comfort for schools like UTEP that might well get doused with molten lava as conferences melt, meld and congeal as they did six years ago.

The mouth of the volcano is centered around Big 10 headquarters and those four schools. Word is, if Notre Dame bites this time, the Big 10 will invite a fifth team to create a 16-team superconference.

The eruption from this event would create an entirely new college football landscape, especially if Notre Dame gives up its independence.

This from the conference that made itself an island by not wanting a conference championship game, almost rendering itself a non-competitor for BCS titles in the process. How does this bunch call the shots? 

Because Big 10 fans don't just give, they tithe. And there are a lot of Big 10 fans.

The Big 10 Network, created by conference commish Jim Delaney, was thought to be a bust because it didn't become a national powerhouse that would be in every cable market in the country. 

But that wasn't necessarily the plan at the start. The network is a regional powerhouse in Big 10 states, yielding 88-cents per cable subscriber in one of the most populous areas of the country.

It has created a fund where, along with bowl and BCS payouts, each Big Ten school gets a check for around $20 million a year. That's more than twice as much as the Big XII's measly $7 million to $9 million per school per year.

Add revenues from the states of Missouri and New Jersey, then the football reputation of Nebraska and everyone else must beware. 

Add Notre Dame and the smoldering volcano becomes Vesuvius. The Irish would automatically make the Big Ten Network a Very Big Deal.

Then watch the lava hit the fan.

Stay with me now -- this is going to move fast, but here's one apocalyptic scenario...

The Big XII takes a big hit if Nebraska and Missouri are really invited by the Big Ten -- because they'll both go, unhappy with the revenue sharing arrangement that gives everybody some but those who appear on national television (read: Texas and Oklahoma) more.

Though the Big XII has more BCS title game rep than the Big Ten, should two schools leave it becomes a lot shakier. TCU is primped and ready to be asked to dance, but it will be critical for the conference to work a big TV deal of their own with the Pac-10, or risk having Colorado go there.

But the Big XII is still already a patchwork conference with no long history and it knows it's in deep. If the Pac-10 smells blood in the water, the Big XII will need to look for the Pac-10's dorsal fin. The Pac-10 will bite another chunk off of the Big XII North in Colorado, and probably go after Utah of the Mountain West and maybe -- MAYBE -- Brigham Young.

(If BYU knows what's good for it, somebody in the LDS will have the revelation that it's okay to play on Sundays and, Lo, Pac-10: "This is the place.")

Rumors that the Pac-10 is interested in Fresno State are laughable. It only makes sense geographically, which would be like the Ivy League looking to add Bunker Hill Community College because its in Massachusetts. 

The Pac-10 prides itself on its academics and for having a conference enforcement policy more stringent than the NCAA. They, along with Big 10ers, truly believe something they excrete does not stink -- at least, not in comparison to anyone else.

The day the Bulldogs get into the Pac-10 is the day head coach Pat Hill shaves off the Fu Manchu and starts wearing new caps.

In other words, Never. 

Next, look for the Big XII to make an ineffectual pass at having Arkansas join, to which the Hoggies will reply -- and I quote -- "No."

Then the conference will think about adding TCU, perhaps BYU (if they're not already pledged to the Pac-10), perhaps Houston -- but will implode when Texas, Oklahoma and Texas A&M join the SEC, which will invite one more to create its own 16-team superconference.

Ah, but this would be the best scenario for UTEP. Imagine, Conference USA, which has already gained its foothold in Texas, being able to work a deal in Dallas to invite Texas Tech and Baylor and maybe Oklahoma State. Make yourself big enough to get the Kansas schools in and you have a real party.

Yes, the Mountain West would be a big player, but the Texas and Oklahoma schools benefit more by being in a Texas-centric conference. The Mountain West stands to lose a LOT more if Utah and BYU are gone, even if Boise State joins up, and the fact it's headquartered in Colorado Springs, CO, does not help a conference that still doesn't have as good a television deal as C-USA.

Hmmm. A whiff of old Southwest Conference. UTEP might want to hope the Pac-10 is feeling particularly shark-like going forward. 

If a Big XII-Pac-10 TV deal is reached, though, that bet is completely off.

And, oh yeah, Memphis joins the Big East, which subtracts from its football reputation without Pitt, which would probably join the Big 10 as the 16th team if Notre Dame goes.

Meanwhile, keep the surgical masks handy -- the ash cloud is still putting out for the next few months.

Comments

[Chris]

How about the lone-star conference with Baylor, Texas Tech, UTEP, Houston, Rice, SMU, North Texas, Tulsa and Oklahoma State?

[Grass]

Thanks for your time and effort on this topic, Duke. I think conference realignment is on the minds of a lot of Miner fans, right now, especially the ones that still feel the sting of getting the finger from the Mountain West Conference. This is a really in-depth analysis of possible scenarios for realignment, and the first one that actually generates any sort of excitement for me. You're right, Duke. All the focus is on where Texas and Oklahoma go, but it's the "leftover" teams, like OK State and Texas Tech that would really make a not-too-shabby conference with our Texas branch of C-USA schools. I am not sure how THEY would feel about it (probably like a demotion to them), but they would HAVE to like the idea of actually having a realistic shot to win a conference championship every year. This would also help our recruiting, as kids would love to play these teams every year, and not just as a money game. These would be some nice basketball rivalries, too. It's just too bad that everyone is on stand-by, right now, waiting for the Big Ten to initiate this chain of events. No one will make a move until the dominoes start falling. I just really hope that UTEP gets a decent conference deal this time, and doesn't become a leftover again. We have the facilities that compare with most of these schools, surpassing some of them. Either way, let's go Miners!!!!!

[hawaii volcano helicopter tours]

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