Team Margo: Dist 78 solidly Republican

Republican House candidate Dee Margo sent his supporters this e-mail message (below) yesterday, reassuring them that District 78 is in the GOP column.
Democrat Joe Moody is challenging Margo for the seat that was held by GOP state Rep. Pat Haggerty.
Democrats think they have a good shot at winning this one, and Moody got about twice as many votes as both Margo and Haggerty combined during the primary election last month.
But here's how Margo's team sees the district:

Because of your help and generosity, the Primary is successfully behind us and now I’m looking forward to your continued support preparing for the months ahead that lead up to the General Election in November. I’d like to share with you a memo by my team that analyzes the voting history for House District 78.
        ________________________________________

       

         

MEMO

         

TO: Team Margo
            RE: The Truth About HD-78

         

TEXAS HD-78 GENERAL ELECTION VOTE HISTORY ANALYSIS
An in-depth review of election results over the last several election cycles in District 78 demonstrates a history of GOP candidates consistently receiving the majority of votes cast in general election contests.

         

Key findings that underscore the Republican nature of HD-78:

         

            

• In the November 2006 election against long-time Democrat incumbent Senator Eliot Shapleigh, Dee Margo carried HD-78 with 54% of the vote, outperforming his district wide total by 13 points.
                 
               
• Unlike the other house districts in El Paso, the Democrats do not possess a straight ticket voting advantage in HD-78. The number of Democrat and Republican straight ticket votes cast in HD-78 are relatively equal, while the other four El Paso house districts have two to five times more Democrat straight ticket votes cast than Republican straight ticket votes cast within these districts.
                 
               
• The vast majority of statewide Republican candidates on the ballot have received a majority of the general election vote within HD-78 over the last several election cycles.
                 
               
• In recent elections, many Republican statewide candidates who purchased television advertising in the El Paso media market attained even higher levels of ballot support within HD-78 than they received statewide. In the 2006 general election, Kay Bailey Hutchison received 62.1% of the votes cast in the U.S. Senate race in HD-78, while her statewide total was 61.7%. Similarly, Susan Combs received 60.2% of the vote for Comptroller within HD-78 while receiving 59.5% of the statewide vote.

         

         

With past election performance as the best indicator in determining the partisan vote behavior of the district, HD-78 remains a decidedly Republican district for the foreseeable future.

       

               

________________________________________

       

While this is encouraging news, we still have a long way to go. The Austin Democrats and the trial lawyers have already targeted our District as one they think they can win, and will stop at nothing to do so. I need your help to get an early start and begin building our resources to prepare for the November election. Will you join me in giving El Paso the tested, experienced leadership it deserves?

       

I look forward to seeing you on the campaign trail.

Comments

[Monchis]

GOP, exclusively for the rich, white, freeloading, elitist, insider cronies!
All others need not apply!

[Bob]

Yes, in the REPUBLICAN PRIMARY, the district is solidly Republican.

Go Figure. Team Margo gets an A+ for creative writing.

[Jim]

Margo's analysis is right on and the more John Q. Moody uses the '08 Primary figures to craft his campaign strategy, the better for Margo. Moody's false sense of security granted him on Primary Day will be his downfall.

[John Q]

It seems Dee Margo needs a guide dog for two things: to help him find an authentic, legal residence in District 78 and to help him see the District 78 electorate more clearly.

In the primary election on March 4, Republicans Dee Margo and Pat Haggerty COMBINED garnered 8,968 votes, far fewer (8986)votes than Democrats Joseph E. Moody and Dr. Louis Irwin combined.

Margo's 5080 votes totaled 7,879 FEWER than Moody's 12,959 and only 85 more than Dr. Irwin's total.

The numbers don't lie, but Margo's "analysis" certainly does.

This is another seat the Democrats can rely on winning in the November general election.